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Chuck Hughes
provides the featured article this week. Hughes
explains why fixed income investments should
be a part of every investor’s portfolio.
Then,
Lee Gettess shares an article on reading the
market's direction by following the highs
and lows.
Next,
Chris Verhaegh talks about how to match your
time frame analysis with your individual trading
style.
Last,
Norman Hallett presents us with a video
explaining what the Buffett/Soros Rule #1
really means.
Enjoy!
Adrienne
LaVigne
TradeWins Publishing
Beating
the Bogy with Bonds
The
following is an excerpt from Chuck Hughes'
The
Fail Safe Now Financial Program
Fixed
income investments should be a part of
every investor’s portfolio. Fixed
income securities have performed well
since the historic ‘Great Bull Market’
began in the stock market in 1982. While
the stock market produced its greatest
gains in history during the 1982 to 2000
bull market, US Treasury Zero
Coupon Bonds (‘Zeros’) out-performed
the S&P 500 Stock Index by more than
a six to one margin over the same period!
Treasury Zeros continued to out-perform
the S&P 500 Index for the following
two years.
$10,000
invested in US Treasury Zeros in 1982
grew to $1,003,865 by 2002 versus a $82,064
growth for the S&P 500 Index over
the same period.
During
that time, common stocks had been at their
most expensive levels in history up 98,900
percent since 1929 and therefore much
more susceptible to a decline or below
par performance. Unlike stocks, fixed
income securities are under valued in
relation to their historical levels and
represent a good value.
Comparing
Yields
One
of the best ways to compare relative value
between stocks and fixed income securities
is to compare the earnings yield of stocks
with the yield to maturity for fixed income
securities. Earnings yield is calculated
by dividing a company’s earnings
by its share price (inverse of calculating
a P/E ratio). For example, let’s
say Cisco Systems share price declined
from a high of 82 in 2009 to a price of
32 in January 2010. Cisco earned 41 cents
per share over a 12 month period, which
translates to an earnings yield of 1%
(.41 divided by 38.00). This compares
to a yield of 5.5% for ultra safe short-term
US Treasuries. Even though Cisco had experienced
a 50% price decline it is still over valued
when compared to the yield of US Treasuries.
Creations of Highs and Lows
The
following is an excerpt from Lee Gettess'
Lee
Gettess on Day Trading
There
is an aspect of technical analysis that
is often overlooked, which I believe might
be one of the most important clues to
probable market direction almost all technical
analysis begins an a bar chart. Each bar
represents some unit of time, although
many software packages now allow the use
of tick bars, which are units of activity
rather than time. Since those basically
function under the same rules as time
bar charts, we will discuss on the basis
of time only.
Each
bar on a chart could represent one day's
worth of price action. It could also be
an hour, a 10 minute period, a week, a
month, a year, etc. The exact time frame
we are dealing with is irrelevant. All
of them hold to the same basic truth.
That
basic truth is that each bar has to make
both a high and a low. It doesn't matter
how active or inactive, or whether the
market is going up, down, or sideways.
Each and every bar will make a high and
a low.
So much of today’s thinking revolves
around what will happen tomorrow. People
forget what happened yesterday. Where a
stock has been in the past, is the best
clue to where it will go in the future.
Everyone should agree the future hasn’t
happened yet. Needless to say, the past
has taken place. But, how long ago?
Perspective produces the past. To a long-term
trader intent on holding a stock for years,
if not decades, yesterday may or may not
have been the past. But an hour ago certainly
wasn’t. To a day-trader, last week
seems like a lifetime ago.
Everyone wants to buy as low as possible.
Many “guess-vestors” will buy
on intuition. However, you should buy on
price action based on indicator setups.
The price action giving you the entry will
be a function of your interval. You need
to match your timeframe analysis with your
holding period outlook, i.e. long-term,
intermediate or day trading.
A down-in-an-up to a large timeframe investor
might be a substantial down to someone intending
to enter and exit in a matter of hours.
Don’t use monthly bars if you want
to day-trade. On the same token, long-term
investors shouldn’t use one-minute
bars either. You need to match your intervals
to your intentions. Notice the “s”
on the end of intervals.
The
key to timeframe analysis is using multiple
timeframes. Use the largest to determine
“your” general trend. “Your”
trend may vary from those of others using
different timeframes. Employ a smaller interval
to look for pullbacks. A pullback is a falling
back of a price from its peak.
What does the Buffett/Soros Rule
#1 Really Mean?
Norman
talks about how George Soros and Warren Buffett
both exercise the same cardinal rule... Don't
Lose Money! But how can you make money if
you're not willing to lose any money?
Norman talks more about this and what the
"Don't Lose Money" rule really means...
Watch
Video
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Chuck
Hughes, who started his trading in 1984,
was a full-time commercial airline pilot.
However, according to Hughes, his job as
pilot was quite frustrating sometimes. This
is the reason that he wanted to start his
own trading. His working schedule of 15
to 17 days off each month used to create
a void and trading was the perfect solution
for this. Hughes got quick success in trading
as he finished 10th in the '85 United States
Trading Championship and 3rd in '86 competition
with a huge 260% return.
Chuck Hughes also accrued titles in the
systems trading in another international
trading championship in futures in '94 and
'95, the day trading division of '95, and
the professional division in '99. In 2003,
Chuck Hughes was placed third in the in
the same competition for Stock Trading.
Then in 2005, 2007 and 2009 he took first
once again in the stock trading division.
Finally -
Now It's Your Turn
What
an opportunity! You can make more money
now than you ever thought possible –
and you can do it without unnecessary
risk. Fortunes are being made right now
by those who are lucky enough to have
the right knowledge at their fingertips.
Buying
stock and mutual funds may work out in
the long run . . . but you can have your
stock market! The real money’s being
made using other investment strategies.
Investment strategies you can use to grab
gains you never thought possible, with:
-
Limited
Downside Risk – as low as a few
hundred dollars!
-
Unlimited
Upside Profits – like the $3 million
in gross income Chuck Hughes has amassed
in this past year!
-
Recession
Proof – huge profits no matter
how the markets move – Bull or
Bear!
-
Tiny
Investments – put as little as
$300 at risk with unlimited profit potential!
Since
I first released my book, I’ve shared
actual trades with readers – totaling
a $4,787,508.08 Profit! And I’ve
made over $3 million actual gross income
this past year.
Invest
the Fail Safe Way!
Andy
Chambers
Chuck
Hughes
Chris
Verhaegh
Connors
& Hayward
Dale Brethauer
Darrell
Jobman
Dave
Caplan
Ken
W. Chow
Peter McKenna
Ray Frazier
Tom DeMark
Tony Catalfamo
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PLEASE
READ. Past results are
not necessarily indicative of future results.
There is a substantial risk of loss
trading commodities, stocks, bonds and options
with or without this or any other advertised
product, service or system.
Also hypothetical or simulated performance
results have certain inherent limitations.
Unlike an actual performance record,
simulated results do not represent actual
trading. Since the trades
have not actually been executed, the results
may have under-or-over compensated for the
impact, if any, of certain market factors,
such as lack of liquidity.
Simulated trading programs in general
are also subject to the fact that they are
designed with the benefit of hindsight.
No representation is being made that
any account will or is likely to achieve profits
or losses similar to those shown.
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