July 2, 2014

 

Chuck Hughes provides the featured article this week. Hughes explains why fixed income investments should be a part of every investor’s portfolio.

Then, Lee Gettess shares an article on reading the market's direction by following the highs and lows.

Next, Chris Verhaegh talks about how to match your time frame analysis with your individual trading style.

Last, Norman Hallett presents us with a video explaining what the Buffett/Soros Rule #1 really means.


Enjoy!

 

Adrienne LaVigne
TradeWins Publishing

 

Beating the Bogy with Bonds

By Chuck Hughes

The following is an excerpt from Chuck Hughes' The Fail Safe Now Financial Program

 

Fixed income investments should be a part of every investor’s portfolio. Fixed income securities have performed well since the historic ‘Great Bull Market’ began in the stock market in 1982. While the stock market produced its greatest gains in history during the 1982 to 2000 bull market, US Treasury Zero Coupon Bonds (‘Zeros’) out-performed the S&P 500 Stock Index by more than a six to one margin over the same period! Treasury Zeros continued to out-perform the S&P 500 Index for the following two years.

 

$10,000 invested in US Treasury Zeros in 1982 grew to $1,003,865 by 2002 versus a $82,064 growth for the S&P 500 Index over the same period.

 

During that time, common stocks had been at their most expensive levels in history up 98,900 percent since 1929 and therefore much more susceptible to a decline or below par performance. Unlike stocks, fixed income securities are under valued in relation to their historical levels and represent a good value.

 

Comparing Yields

 

One of the best ways to compare relative value between stocks and fixed income securities is to compare the earnings yield of stocks with the yield to maturity for fixed income securities. Earnings yield is calculated by dividing a company’s earnings by its share price (inverse of calculating a P/E ratio). For example, let’s say Cisco Systems share price declined from a high of 82 in 2009 to a price of 32 in January 2010. Cisco earned 41 cents per share over a 12 month period, which translates to an earnings yield of 1% (.41 divided by 38.00). This compares to a yield of 5.5% for ultra safe short-term US Treasuries. Even though Cisco had experienced a 50% price decline it is still over valued when compared to the yield of US Treasuries.

 

Creations of Highs and Lows

by Lee Gettess

The following is an excerpt from Lee Gettess' Lee Gettess on Day Trading

There is an aspect of technical analysis that is often overlooked, which I believe might be one of the most important clues to probable market direction almost all technical analysis begins an a bar chart. Each bar represents some unit of time, although many software packages now allow the use of tick bars, which are units of activity rather than time. Since those basically function under the same rules as time bar charts, we will discuss on the basis of time only.

Each bar on a chart could represent one day's worth of price action. It could also be an hour, a 10 minute period, a week, a month, a year, etc. The exact time frame we are dealing with is irrelevant. All of them hold to the same basic truth.

That basic truth is that each bar has to make both a high and a low. It doesn't matter how active or inactive, or whether the market is going up, down, or sideways. Each and every bar will make a high and a low.

 
   
 
Timeframe Analysis

By Chris Verhaegh


So much of today’s thinking revolves around what will happen tomorrow. People forget what happened yesterday. Where a stock has been in the past, is the best clue to where it will go in the future. Everyone should agree the future hasn’t happened yet. Needless to say, the past has taken place. But, how long ago?


Perspective produces the past. To a long-term trader intent on holding a stock for years, if not decades, yesterday may or may not have been the past. But an hour ago certainly wasn’t. To a day-trader, last week seems like a lifetime ago.


Everyone wants to buy as low as possible. Many “guess-vestors” will buy on intuition. However, you should buy on price action based on indicator setups. The price action giving you the entry will be a function of your interval. You need to match your timeframe analysis with your holding period outlook, i.e. long-term, intermediate or day trading.


A down-in-an-up to a large timeframe investor might be a substantial down to someone intending to enter and exit in a matter of hours. Don’t use monthly bars if you want to day-trade. On the same token, long-term investors shouldn’t use one-minute bars either. You need to match your intervals to your intentions. Notice the “s” on the end of intervals.

 

The key to timeframe analysis is using multiple timeframes. Use the largest to determine “your” general trend. “Your” trend may vary from those of others using different timeframes. Employ a smaller interval to look for pullbacks. A pullback is a falling back of a price from its peak.

 

 

What does the Buffett/Soros Rule #1 Really Mean?

by Norman Hallett
 
 

Norman talks about how George Soros and Warren Buffett both exercise the same cardinal rule... Don't Lose Money! But how can you make money if you're not willing to lose any money?

 

Norman talks more about this and what the "Don't Lose Money" rule really means...


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Interesting Image

Chuck Hughes

Chuck Hughes, who started his trading in 1984, was a full-time commercial airline pilot. However, according to Hughes, his job as pilot was quite frustrating sometimes. This is the reason that he wanted to start his own trading. His working schedule of 15 to 17 days off each month used to create a void and trading was the perfect solution for this. Hughes got quick success in trading as he finished 10th in the '85 United States Trading Championship and 3rd in '86 competition with a huge 260% return.

 

Chuck Hughes also accrued titles in the systems trading in another international trading championship in futures in '94 and '95, the day trading division of '95, and the professional division in '99. In 2003, Chuck Hughes was placed third in the in the same competition for Stock Trading. Then in 2005, 2007 and 2009 he took first once again in the stock trading division.

Finally -
Now It's Your Turn

 

 

What an opportunity! You can make more money now than you ever thought possible – and you can do it without unnecessary risk. Fortunes are being made right now by those who are lucky enough to have the right knowledge at their fingertips.

 

Buying stock and mutual funds may work out in the long run . . . but you can have your stock market! The real money’s being made using other investment strategies. Investment strategies you can use to grab gains you never thought possible, with:

  • Limited Downside Risk – as low as a few hundred dollars!
  • Unlimited Upside Profits – like the $3 million in gross income Chuck Hughes has amassed in this past year!
  • Recession Proof – huge profits no matter how the markets move – Bull or Bear!
  • Tiny Investments – put as little as $300 at risk with unlimited profit potential!

 

Since I first released my book, I’ve shared actual trades with readers – totaling a $4,787,508.08 Profit! And I’ve made over $3 million actual gross income this past year.

 

 

Invest the Fail Safe Way!

 
Our Author Team

Adam Oliensis
Andy Chambers
Art Palmer
Brian Schad
Chuck Hughes
Chris Verhaegh
Connors & Hayward
Dale Brethauer
Dan Keen
Darrell Jobman
Dave Caplan
Don Fishback
Don Wellenreiter
Duane Davis
Ellie Taft
Gary Wagner
George Angell
J. Welles Wilder
Jack Schwager
Jea Yu
Jeff Horovitz
Joe Duffy
Jon Najarian
John Weston
Kathy Lien
Keith Cotterill
Ken W. Chow
Larry Williams
Lawrence McMillan
Lee Gettess
Market Publications
Mohan
Murray Ruggiero
Oliver Velez
Peter McKenna
Ray Frazier
Russell Sands
Sherman & Tom McCllelan
Tom DeMark
Tony Catalfamo
Wendy Kirkland
 

PLEASE READ. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. There is a substantial risk of loss trading commodities, stocks, bonds and options with or without this or any other advertised product, service or system. Also hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown.