May 24, 2017
Inside Trading
TradeWins Publishing

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David L. Caplan



Dave Caplan founded and is former President of Opportunities in Options in Malibu, California, a firm that specializes in analyzing and identifying potential option trades with the best returns and the lowest risks. A pioneer in innovative option trading strategies, he is the author of several best-selling books including The Options Advantage, The Options Secret and Trade Options Like a Bookie.


David L. Caplan’s
The Option Secret




This book is an indispensable tool for all option traders. Inside, renowned publisher, speaker and author Dave Caplan explains how to use volatility as a measure of under- and over-valuation on any option. This, according to Caplan, can put the odds of success (profitability) in your favor up to 90% of the time. Coupled with the limited risk inherent in options, that measurement of volatility is the true key to realizing consistent profits in options. Caplan explains it all, in clear and concise language, in the pages of this breakthrough book. And you can get a copy now at half the regular price. Supplies are limited, so order soon!

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The Option Secret



 

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Welcome to this week’s Inside Trading. We are excited to offer a new feature – ONE TRADE A WEEK! That is right; every issue will now start out with a hot new trade. Make sure you watch your inbox for our new weekly issue so you don’t miss out…

Lee Gettess provides the next segment with a video that details his own Marksman Trading methodology.

Then, Dave Caplan talks about how implied volatility affects agricultural options.

Last, Andy Chambers covers his Weekly Market Line in the Sand Newsletter.

Enjoy!

Adrienne LaVigne
TradeWins Publishing



 

Hot Cyber ETFs Trade

by TradeWins Publishing

Cyber Threat 2017: We Haven’t Dodged this Bullet

“We haven’t full dodged this bullet at all…”

Days after one of the most vicious cyber attacks crippled the world, that’s what Ryan Kalember, senior vice of ProofPoint Inc. feared the most the day after.

“Until we’re patched against the vulnerability itself,” he notes, we’re still in harms way.

No one is safe. In fact, not even you or the U.S. government.

Our own U.S. government has had a target on its head for years.

Yet it’s not prepared at all.

“According to a recent federal edition of Thales Data Threat Report, 34% of federal respondents experienced a data breach in the last year and 65% experienced a data breach in the past. Almost all (96%) consider themselves 'vulnerable', with half (48%) stating they are 'very' or 'extremely' vulnerable,” as reported by Axios.

Embarrassingly, a day after President Trump signed an executive order demanding broad review of cyber security at the federal level; the world was hit with a vicious Ransomware virus.

More than 200,000 companies in 150 countries were hit, including the U.S., the UK, China, Germany, France and Russia. Thousands of computers were affected in China for example, shutting down gas stations, cash machines and universities. Hospitals in the UK were forced to close. Emergency rooms turned away patients.



Hot Cyber ETFs Trade

 
 

Marksman Trading Methodology

by Lee Gettess

The following is from Lee Gettess' Traders Positioning System DVD

In this video clip, Lee Gettess explains his Marksman trading strategy in details. Gettess lays out how he charts the strategy, the set-up, patterns he watches for and how to place your entry and stop.


Watch Video

 
 

Implied Volatility in Agricultural Options

by Dave Caplan

The following is an excerpt from Dave Caplan's The Option Secret

A trader’s expectation of volatility must dictate his or her strategy, since the flat-price outlook can be traded from either a long or short volatility perspective. What beginning option traders often fail to realize is that, more often than not, it is the correct volatility perspective that determines the success or failure of options trading, not the correct flat-price outlook.

Intuitively, just as there is seasonality in the level of agricultural prices, there is seasonality in the movement of agricultural prices. After a three or four month growing period in the United States, crop production will either be abundant or deficient, and prices must adjust accordingly during that short period. Therefore, weather is the overwhelming determinant of price volatility, though volatility will rise or fall due to other isolated events. The Chernobyl nuclear accident in the Soviet Union in May 1986 is one example of this type of isolated event. These phenomena are unpredictable and common to all options markets; however, they are not our concern here.

Agricultural options have been traded during periods of both abundant crops and drought; therefore, options traders effectively have their volatility boundaries defined, as well as a clear picture of the seasonality of volatility. From this, a partial solution to the long volatility/short volatility quandary is obtained.

Soybean Implied Volatility: Historical Trends

If one disregards the 1988 drought (May – August 1988), the table below demonstrates that soybean option implied volatility has averaged about 20 percent from 1985 – 1988.



Implied Volatility in Agricultural Options

 
 

Weekly Market Line in the Sand

by Andy Chambers

The following is an excerpt from Andy Chambers' Weekly Market Line in the Sand

Every week Andy publishes his “Weekly Market Line in the Sand” newsletter. The following are trade updates from his most recent issue.

Stock Watch: The trend is up. The immediate outlook is uncertain. Time of year and the inability of the bulls to push the market higher after last month’s gap up suggest that the bull move could be running out of steam for now.

Mini DOW Futures Weekly: A weekly close over this week’s high of 20995 could result in a further advance. The current target is 22500. A weekly close below this week’s low of 20474 would point to a further decline. The initial hurdles for the bears are seen at 20311 and 19607.

DIA Weekly: A weekly close over this week’s high of 210.46 could result in a further advance. The next targets are 215 and 220. A weekly close below this week’s low of 205.85 would point to a further decline. The initial hurdles for the bears are seen at 203.64 and 196.69.

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PLEASE READ. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. There is a substantial risk of loss trading commodities, stocks, bonds and options with or without this or any other advertised product, service or system. Also hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown.